diff --git a/hive-forge-notify/src/bin/hive-forge-notify/main.rs b/hive-forge-notify/src/bin/hive-forge-notify/main.rs
index f9717ed6..eff5a5a7 100644
--- a/hive-forge-notify/src/bin/hive-forge-notify/main.rs
+++ b/hive-forge-notify/src/bin/hive-forge-notify/main.rs
@@ -133,34 +133,78 @@ async fn forgejo_loop(state_dir: String, socket: std::path::PathBuf) {
 /// Count of open issues or PRs assigned to this agent, via Forgejo's
 /// global search API. `issue_type` is `"issues"` or `"pulls"`. Reads the
 /// `X-Total-Count` header rather than deserialising the body — only page 1
-/// with limit 1 is fetched, keeping the request cheap. `None` on any error.
+/// with limit 1 is fetched, keeping the request cheap. `Err` carries a
+/// human-readable cause for the caller to log — a poll failure must not
+/// look like a genuine zero count (see [`decide_rollup`]).
 async fn count_assigned(
     client: &reqwest::Client,
     forge_url: &str,
     token: &str,
     issue_type: &str,
-) -> Option<u64> {
+) -> Result<u64, String> {
     let url = format!(
         "{forge_url}/api/v1/issues/search\
          ?type={issue_type}&state=open&assigned=true&limit=1&page=1"
     );
-    let resp = match client
+    let resp = client
         .get(&url)
         .header("Authorization", format!("token {token}"))
         .send()
         .await
-    {
-        Ok(r) if r.status().is_success() => r,
-        _ => return None,
+        .map_err(|e| e.to_string())?;
+    if !resp.status().is_success() {
+        return Err(format!("HTTP {}", resp.status()));
+    }
+    let count_str = resp
+        .headers()
+        .get("x-total-count")
+        .ok_or("response carried no X-Total-Count header")?
+        .to_str()
+        .map_err(|e| e.to_string())?;
+    count_str.parse::<u64>().map_err(|e| e.to_string())
+}
+
+/// What [`update_assigned_rollup`] should do with the harness's todo,
+/// given this poll's counts. Kept separate from the socket call so the
+/// decision — the part a transient forge outage must not corrupt — is
+/// testable without a live server.
+#[derive(Debug)]
+enum RollupDecision {
+    /// Either count fetch failed; the existing todo (if any) stands as-is
+    /// until a poll where both counts are known succeeds.
+    Skip,
+    Clear,
+    Upsert(String),
+}
+
+/// Either count being an `Err` means this poll cannot tell zero assigned
+/// apart from "forge didn't answer" — treating it as zero would clear (or
+/// wrongly resize) a todo that a working poll would have kept.
+fn decide_rollup(issues: Result<u64, String>, pulls: Result<u64, String>) -> RollupDecision {
+    let (Ok(issues), Ok(pulls)) = (issues, pulls) else {
+        return RollupDecision::Skip;
     };
-    let count_str = resp.headers().get("x-total-count")?.to_str().ok()?;
-    count_str.parse::<u64>().ok()
+    let total = issues + pulls;
+    if total == 0 {
+        return RollupDecision::Clear;
+    }
+    let breakdown = match (issues, pulls) {
+        (i, 0) => format!("{i} issue{}", if i == 1 { "" } else { "s" }),
+        (0, p) => format!("{p} PR{}", if p == 1 { "" } else { "s" }),
+        (i, p) => format!(
+            "{i} issue{}, {p} PR{}",
+            if i == 1 { "" } else { "s" },
+            if p == 1 { "" } else { "s" }
+        ),
+    };
+    RollupDecision::Upsert(format!("{total} open assigned: {breakdown}"))
 }
 
 /// Keep a keyed `"rollup"` todo in sync with the count of open assigned
 /// issues + PRs: a positive count summarises the breakdown, zero clears
-/// the todo. The rollup key is distinct from per-thread keys so clearing
-/// it never touches notification todos.
+/// the todo, and a failed poll leaves it untouched (see [`decide_rollup`]).
+/// The rollup key is distinct from per-thread keys so clearing it never
+/// touches notification todos.
 ///
 /// Forge-only by nature — it asks the forge what is assigned to this
 /// agent, which is not a notification-protocol concern and has no
@@ -171,43 +215,79 @@ async fn update_assigned_rollup(
     token: &str,
     socket: &Path,
 ) {
-    let issues = count_assigned(client, forge_url, token, "issues")
-        .await
-        .unwrap_or(0);
-    let pulls = count_assigned(client, forge_url, token, "pulls")
-        .await
-        .unwrap_or(0);
-    let total = issues + pulls;
+    let issues = count_assigned(client, forge_url, token, "issues").await;
+    let pulls = count_assigned(client, forge_url, token, "pulls").await;
+    if let Err(e) = &issues {
+        warn!("forge_notify: assigned-issues poll failed, leaving rollup todo unchanged: {e}");
+    }
+    if let Err(e) = &pulls {
+        warn!("forge_notify: assigned-pulls poll failed, leaving rollup todo unchanged: {e}");
+    }
 
-    let req = if total == 0 {
-        hive_agent_sock::Request::ClearTodo {
+    let req = match decide_rollup(issues, pulls) {
+        RollupDecision::Skip => return,
+        RollupDecision::Clear => hive_agent_sock::Request::ClearTodo {
             subsystem: "forge".to_owned(),
             key: Some("rollup".to_owned()),
             all: false,
-        }
-    } else {
-        let breakdown = match (issues, pulls) {
-            (i, 0) => format!("{i} issue{}", if i == 1 { "" } else { "s" }),
-            (0, p) => format!("{p} PR{}", if p == 1 { "" } else { "s" }),
-            (i, p) => format!(
-                "{i} issue{}, {p} PR{}",
-                if i == 1 { "" } else { "s" },
-                if p == 1 { "" } else { "s" }
-            ),
-        };
-        hive_agent_sock::Request::UpsertTodo {
+        },
+        RollupDecision::Upsert(summary) => hive_agent_sock::Request::UpsertTodo {
             subsystem: "forge".to_owned(),
             key: Some("rollup".to_owned()),
-            summary: format!("{total} open assigned: {breakdown}"),
+            summary,
             source: None,
             reopen_if_acked: false,
-        }
+        },
     };
 
     match hive_sock_client::request::<_, hive_agent_sock::Response>(socket, &req, TODO_SOCKET_RETRY)
         .await
     {
-        Ok(_) => debug!(total, "forge_notify: assigned rollup todo updated"),
+        Ok(_) => debug!("forge_notify: assigned rollup todo updated"),
         Err(e) => debug!("forge_notify: assigned rollup todo update failed: {e}"),
     }
 }
+
+#[cfg(test)]
+mod tests {
+    use super::{RollupDecision, decide_rollup};
+
+    #[test]
+    fn failed_issues_poll_leaves_todo_untouched() {
+        assert!(matches!(
+            decide_rollup(Err("timeout".to_owned()), Ok(0)),
+            RollupDecision::Skip
+        ));
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn failed_pulls_poll_leaves_todo_untouched() {
+        assert!(matches!(
+            decide_rollup(Ok(3), Err("HTTP 500".to_owned())),
+            RollupDecision::Skip
+        ));
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn both_polls_failing_leaves_todo_untouched() {
+        assert!(matches!(
+            decide_rollup(Err("timeout".to_owned()), Err("timeout".to_owned())),
+            RollupDecision::Skip
+        ));
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn successful_zero_clears_todo() {
+        assert!(matches!(decide_rollup(Ok(0), Ok(0)), RollupDecision::Clear));
+    }
+
+    #[test]
+    fn successful_nonzero_sets_todo() {
+        match decide_rollup(Ok(2), Ok(1)) {
+            RollupDecision::Upsert(summary) => {
+                assert_eq!(summary, "3 open assigned: 2 issues, 1 PR");
+            }
+            other => panic!("expected Upsert, got {other:?}"),
+        }
+    }
+}