diff --git a/hive-c0re/src/forge/repos.rs b/hive-c0re/src/forge/repos.rs
index de80776b..f8aa5703 100644
--- a/hive-c0re/src/forge/repos.rs
+++ b/hive-c0re/src/forge/repos.rs
@@ -714,21 +714,20 @@ fn main_branch_protection_option() -> CreateBranchProtectionOption {
     }
 }
 
-/// Whether a branch-protection create failed because a rule for the
-/// branch already exists: 409/422 ([`is_already_exists`]) or the 200
-/// Forgejo answers instead of 201 for a duplicate rule (unlisted in
-/// the endpoint spec, so it surfaces as `UnexpectedStatusCode(200)`).
-fn is_protection_already_present(e: &ForgejoError) -> bool {
-    is_already_exists(e)
-        || matches!(e, ForgejoError::UnexpectedStatusCode(s) if *s == StatusCode::OK)
-}
-
 /// Apply the operator merge-gate branch protection to `repo`'s default
 /// branch: only [`OPERATORS_TEAM`] members can merge, and an
 /// approving review from that team is required — so the author (a write-level
-/// agent, not in the team) cannot merge its own PR. Idempotent: an existing
-/// rule for the branch (200/409/422) is treated as success.
+/// agent, not in the team) cannot merge its own PR.
+///
+/// Idempotent, but **verify-don't-trust**: a create failure is ambiguous —
+/// "rule already exists" (success) OR a silent rejection that created NO rule
+/// (e.g. a 422 where `OPERATORS_TEAM` doesn't exist in `AGENTS_ORG`). The old
+/// code folded 200/409/422 into `Ok` and left the repo unprotected with no
+/// error — a fail-open merge gate. So on any create error, GET the `main` rule
+/// and only treat it as success if the rule is actually present (the exact fix
+/// already applied to [`apply_config_repo_branch_protection`]).
 async fn apply_operator_branch_protection(repo: &str, token: &str) -> Result<()> {
+    let client = api(token)?;
     let mut rule = main_branch_protection_option();
     rule.enable_merge_whitelist = Some(true);
     rule.merge_whitelist_teams = Some(vec![OPERATORS_TEAM.to_owned()]);
@@ -736,19 +735,28 @@ async fn apply_operator_branch_protection(repo: &str, token: &str) -> Result<()>
     rule.approvals_whitelist_teams = Some(vec![OPERATORS_TEAM.to_owned()]);
     rule.required_approvals = Some(1);
     rule.block_on_official_review_requests = Some(true);
-    match api(token)?
+    let Err(create_err) = client
         .repo_create_branch_protection(AGENTS_ORG, repo, rule)
         .await
+    else {
+        tracing::info!(%repo, "forge: applied operator branch protection");
+        return Ok(());
+    };
+    match client
+        .repo_get_branch_protection(AGENTS_ORG, repo, "main")
+        .await
     {
         Ok(_) => {
-            tracing::info!(%repo, "forge: applied operator branch protection");
+            tracing::debug!(
+                %repo, create_error = %create_err,
+                "forge: operator branch protection already present"
+            );
             Ok(())
         }
-        Err(e) if is_protection_already_present(&e) => {
-            tracing::debug!(%repo, "forge: branch protection already present");
-            Ok(())
-        }
-        Err(e) => Err(e).with_context(|| format!("create branch protection {AGENTS_ORG}/{repo}")),
+        Err(check_err) => anyhow::bail!(
+            "branch protection for {AGENTS_ORG}/{repo} not applied: create failed \
+             ({create_err}); GET main rule failed ({check_err}), no `main` rule present"
+        ),
     }
 }